Friday, September 8, 2017

Analysis of the World Cup 2018 Qualifiers September 2017 Part 2

Welcome to the second part of our weekly analysis of the World Cup 2018 Qualifiers, that were played in September. In Part 1 which can be viewed here, reviewed Group A to Group D.

Moving on to Group E, Poland, Montenegro and Denmark are the contenders for the top spot. Poland are the current leader with 19 points, followed by both Montenegro and Denmark with 16. The 4th team Romania has only 9, followed by Armenia with 6 and Kazakhstan with 2.

Denmark, destroyed Poland in the previous match, played with month with 4-0, and getting closer to the position they were expecting to be at, 1st. With a match against Montenegro, and then a direct match between their competitors Poland and Montenegro, Denmark are in a wonderful position, if they managed to win the home game.

In Group F, we have England on the top spot with 20 points, followed by Slovakia with 15pts, Slovenia with 14pts, Scotland with 14pts. The last two teams Lithuania with 5pts and Malta with 0 pts are out of the competition, but remain as an obstacle of course.

The English team is still unbeaten, recording 6 wins and 2 draws, needing just a draw in their next game against Slovenia to secure their first spot. Due to the tiebreaker being points and then goal difference even if Slovakia catches up, they'd have a worse goal difference.

In Group G, Spain is the leader as expected, having 22 points in 8 games, winning 7 and drawing 1. The team is followed by Italy who are second with 19 and Albania who are 3rd with 13, but the team has only chances to reach the 2nd place. The rest of the teams in the group have no chances: Israel, Macedonia and Liechtenstein.

Spain already met Italy this month, won comfortably with 3-0 and now has games only with Albania and Israel, opponents that should not be a problem at all. Italy on the other hand will meets Macedonia and then Albania and will probably keep their second place and play in the play-offs.

In Group H, we have a team that has already qualified for World Cup 2018 and that's Belgium. The team is first with 22 points, winning 7 games and drawing 1, with the 2nd team being Bosnia and Herzegovina with 14 points, 8 points away with just 2 matches remaining. Greece is third in the group with 13 points, and Cyprus is 4th with 10 points.Estonia with 8pts and Gibraltar with 0 have no chances to get anything in this qualification stage.

Bosnia will have to face Belgium one last time, which could mean trouble as the other rivals for the 2nd place Greece and Cyprus can replace them on that 2nd spot if the teams loses. Luckily for them Greece and Cyprus have a direct game, and a potential draw can kill the chances of both teams to get to the 2nd place. Just as a reminder in the first match in Belgium, Bosnia lost with 0-4.

In Group I, Croatia, Iceland, Turkey and Ukraine will be fighting for the top spot. Currently both Croatia and Iceland are with 16pts, while Turkey and Ukraine with 14. The remaining 2 teams Finland with 7pts and Kosovo with 1pt have no chances for anything. The key games would be Turkey vs Iceland and Ukraine vs Croatia, where each team can lose points and impact the table. My expectations are that Croatia will keep their top position with 2nd team being Turkey or Iceland.

This concludes our analysis, for the September games from the World Cup 2018 qualifiers.

Analysis of the World Cup 2018 Qualifiers September 2017 Part 1

World Cup Russia 2018 is around the corner, and next summer we are going to enjoy a lengthy, top class event, in a beautiful country. The qualifiers are already near their end, with most groups having a noticeable leader, with one or a few teams that'd be fighting for the 2nd spot and a play-off match.

This month we already witnessed a few games, some of which were quite head turning and lead to surprising outcomes. With 2 games remaining in most groups, the teams that will not have a chance are pretty much obvious and we can only focus on those who still have chance.

In Group A, France is a leader with 17 points, but recorded a very surprising draw this round against Luxembourg at home, a goalless 0-0. Meanwhile, Bulgaria surprisingly managed to beat Sweden with 3-2 and did not allow the Scandinavians to snap the top spot after France lost easy points. Now all 4 teams have a chance to qualify, with France sitting on top with 17 points, Sweden being second with 16, Holland with 13 and Bulgaria with 12.

Next set of games will happen in October where Bulgaria and France will most likely be the decider match, as if the Bulgarians win, they'd keep their chances for qualifications, and France will drop a position, or France will secure they top spot or at least top 2 and thus secure their qualifying.

In Group B, nothing unusual is happening there, where Switzerland and Portugal are the dominant teams, Switzerland being first with 24 points, and Portugal being second with 21 points, and the third team is Hungary with 10 points, followed by Faroe Island, Andorra, and Latvia. None of these teams will qualify ahead, so it's up to Switzerland and Portugal, to decide the winner of the group. Both teams will meet on October 10th and that will be the decider game.

In Group C, Germany is dominating with 24 points, a perfect record from the 8 games played. Northern Ireland is second in that group with 19 points and the rest of the teams are eliminated as they cannot get to the desired number of points. Azerbaijan are third with 10 points, Czech Republic 4th with 9pts, Norway 5th with 7pts and San Marino with 0. Next meeting will be between Northern Ireland and Germany, and even a draw guarantees the German to be qualified.

In Group D, Serbia is leading with 18 points, followed by Wales with 14 points and Republic of Ireland with 13 points. Austria is 4th with 9 points, and still has chances but to only make it to the play-offs. Georgia are 5th in the group with 5 points, and managed to get the last 2 points in their last 2 games, recording 1:1 against Austria and Ireland, preventing both teams to move higher on the positions they planned for. With 4 teams still having chances to qualify, the next few games look very interesting with Wales v Ireland being perhaps the most anticipated one.

This concludes part one of the recap from the past week of the World Cup 2018 Qualifiers. Part 2 can be found here.

Wednesday, August 30, 2017

Champions League 2017/2018 Group Stage Day 1 Sept 12th-13th 2017

The football seasons across all Europe have started and with them the most prestigious and exciting tournament starts as well: Champions League Season 2017/18. The draw took place on August 24th 2017, and the groups are set. For those who have missed it this is what the groups looks like:

Group A: Basel, Benfica, CSKA Moscow, Manchester United

Group B: PSG, Bayern Munich, Anderlecht, Celtic

Group C: Atletico Madrid, Chelsea, Qarabag, Roma

Group D: Sporting CP, Barcelona, Juventus, Olympiacos

Group E: Sevilla, Maribor, Spartak Moscow, Liverpool

Group F: Napolli, Feyenoord, Manchester City, Shakhtar Donetsk

Group G: Besiktas, Leipzig, Monaco, Porto

Group H: Borussia Dortmund, Real Madrid, APOEL, Tottenham

On Matchday 1, we have some interesting games forming. Barcelona against Juventus is one of the most anticipated, as last season both teams met in the knockout stage, where Juventus after a loss with 1:3, managed to win at home with 3:0 and knockout the Spanish grand. The odds for this game are 1.75 for Barcelona to win and 4.33 for Juventus to get the 3 points here. A draw is @ 3.75, though Barcelona would want to start the tournament strong, especially at home.

Another match that grabs the attention is Manchester United v Basel. After a somewhat long absence from the tournament, United managed to win Europa League last season and given the new rule that the winner plays in Champions League, they managed to qualify. Both teams have met each other 4 times where each managed to take a victory and there are 2 draws in between those. United however has started the Premier League, very strong winning 3 of the first 3 games, and are priced as a total favorite in this match with odds @ 1.16.

Basel on the other hand have odds @ 15.00, while the draw is @ 7.00 and there's a lot of value in these odds! Why? Because of the previous records, excluding any predetermination and favor of the bigger team, the stats just don't scream Basel is a 100% outsider. Further more, in the last 3 games, the team has managed to win 1 and tie the other 2, which makes them unbeaten against United for over 14 years. Yes United are in a great shape, yes United are the bigger team, yes United are very likely to win and will dominate, BUT the odds do not represent the true probabilities AT ALL.

I'd probably back X2 (Draw + Away Victory), just to see what happens with this match. Not to mention it's a first game and the team will be still adjusting.

Those were the games for September 12th 2017, moving on to September 13th's games, where I'm pleased to see Liverpool returning on the stage of Champions League, after a lot of absence. The team would be facing Sevilla, a team they faced in the Europa League final in 2016, lost with 1:3. Given this fact, the odds for Sevilla to win are @ 5.00, while Liverpool's @ 1.66. Once again we see an overestimation and the odds again represent a lot of favoring the big English team, rater than true probability of what can/would happen.

Tottenham against Borussia Dortmund would be another match, that the fans would be anticipating. Tottenham are the favorite here with odds to win @ 2.30, the draw is @ 3.30 and the away victory has been undercut to 3.10. The statistics show that Dortmund has won the last 2 games, scoring 5 goals and conceding just 1, which is the reason why the odds have been purposely lowered.

Overall a few high profile games that if I'd be playing, would be live, as I'd like to see how the first 10-15 minutes of the match goes. This concludes our Matchday 1 overview.

Saturday, August 26, 2017

English Premier League Season 2017/18 Review Part 4

This is Part 4 of the English Premier League Season 2017/18 review. If you have missed the previous parts, be sure to check the menu on the right. To check our betting tips website that goes into details about specific games, and offers a lot more tips visit Premier League Betting Tips

Bournemouth have spent only €35.5 million, which is understandable given the teams new-ish arrival in Premier League and the amount of money the team has. The disclosed transfers are as follow: N. Aké from Chelsea for €22.8 million and A. Begović also from Chelsea for €11.5 million.

The team has not managed to win a match in the first 2 rounds in Premier League, sitting on the 16th spot with 0 points, a goal difference of -3 and a match coming up against Manchester City, where Bournemouth are outsiders with odds to win the game @ 13.00 or get a point @ 4.00.

Huddersfield Town are starting their Premier League debut as promising as they could, winning both games and being 2nd in the table after Manchester United.The team has spent so far around €40.1 million. The list is as follows: M. Jørgensen from København for €2.3 million, S. Mounié from Montpellier for €13 million, T. Ince from Derby County, for €9 million, A. Mooy from Manchester City for €9.1 million, L. Depoitre from Porto for €5 million.

The promising start of the team cannot really tell anything for now, but the 6 points gathered in the first 2 rounds of the league are very precious. With a theoretical assumption that you need around 40 points to NOT get relegated, and 36 rounds left, Huddersfield would only need 34 more. From the way the team plays however, it looks like their ambitions are a lot higher than just surviving in Premier League.

Overall the English Premier League looks very interesting this season and the transfer sums as usual have gone up again. There was a time where a few millions for a brand new team to the top division was a lot and to be spent on transfers was a luxury. Now, even the newcomers have spent over €30-40 millions and that's just the disclosed amount we can see. The real numbers are perhaps a lot higher.

This concludes our review/preview of the upcoming season. Next on our list would be the Champions League 2017/18 Review, now that the groups have been drawn and we know exactly which teams will be playing with which. Hope you guys have had a good time reading and come back for more next week. If you are looking for the previous parts of this review you can find them on your right side, or click on whichever part you'd like: Part 1 | Part 2 | Part 3

Saturday, August 19, 2017

English Premier League Season 2017/18 Review Part 3

This is Part 3 of the EPL 2017/2018 Review. If you'd like to read the previous to parts, please click here for Part 1 and here for Part 2.

Newcastle has tons of new players but only a few have been disclosed. The total disclosed amount spent currently is €39.1 million. The currently disclosed list is: Joselu from Stoke City for €5.5 million, Javi Manquillo from Atletico Madrid for €4.8 million, Jacob Murphy from Norwich for €11.3 million, F. Lejeune for €10 million from Eibar, C. Atsu from Chelsea for €7.5 million.

The team lost their first match, against Tottenham however, a very tough opponent. The next game will be against Huddersfield, the newcomer in EPL, and yet Newcastle are priced high to win this match @ 3.20, as opposed to the host who is priced to win @ 2.50

In terms of relegation odds Newcastle has 3.75 to be relegated this season, which is quite low, thought their 18th place does not help either.

West Ham finished 11th last season, but the team has had troubles here and there. For the new season 2017/18 the Hammers have spent so far € 64.3 millions. A return to the Premier League would make Javier Hernandez for € 17.8 million from Bayer Leverkusen. Other players that the team has acquired and disclosed are: S. Haksabanovic from Halmstad for € 3 million, M. Arnautović from Stoke City for € 22.3 million, R. Snodgrass from Hull City, José Fonte from Southampton for € 9.2 million and Paul Zabaletta from City for free.

The Hammers faced Manchester United in their first match and took a heavy loss of 0:4. Logically that sent them to the last 20th place in the table with odds to get relegated of 2.75 with bet365. Surely it's too early to determine if this prediction is correct as one game against one of the top teams does not mean much.

Burnley started the season by creating the biggest upset. The team managed to beat Chelsea on Stamford Bridge, winning for those who took the risk to bet on odds @ 13.00 for the away victory. The team has spent so far €33.1 million which shows that since they've stuck around in the Premier League, their budget has increased immensely.

The list with transfers goes like this: P. Bardsley from Stoke City for € 840K thousand, J. Cork from Swansea for € 9.1 million, J. Walters from Stoke City for € 2.3 million, R. Brady from Norwich for € 15.1 million and A. Westwood for € 5.8 million. The rest of the sums are undisclosed. Next game is against W.B.A where Burnley are priced as the favorite for the match with odds to win it @ 2.55.

This concludes our Part 3 of the English Premier 2017 Review.

English Premier League Season 2017/18 Review Part 2

Our Premier League review continues with the teams that usually place around the middle of the table. If you have missed the Part 1, be sure to click here to check it out.

Everton did win their first match and sits on 7th place at the moment with odds to place in top 4 @ 11.00. However the amount the team has spent on transfers this season is enormous for a team  that we rarely see close to top 4 or in it.

So far in this transfer window, Everton has spent €182.3 million. Here's a list of what they have bought and disclosed: G. Sigurðsson from Swansea for € 49.4 million, Sandro Ramírez from Malaga for €6 million, M. Keane from Burnley for € 28.5 million, H. Onyekuru from Eupen for € 8 million, J. Pickford from Sunderland for € 28.5 million, D. Klaassen from Ajax for € 27 million, M. Schneiderlin from Manchester United for € 23.1 million and A. Lookman from Charlton for € 11.8 million.

The rest of the transfers are undisclosed. With the money spent on transfers so far, it will not be a surprise if Everton trips one of the top teams and who knows might even get some action in the top 4 spots.

Stoke City have never shined much but as a team who is always consistent, usually secures a spot in the middle of the table. Logically not a lot of money have been spent on transfers because they are not needed. Around €23.4 million have been spent so far on just 3 players who have been disclosed. The list is as follows: B. Martins Indi from Porto for € 7.7 million, S. Berahino from West Bromwich for € 13.9 million and L. Grant from Derby for € 1.8 million.

Stoke City lost their first match against Everton, with the minimal 0:1, and will be facing in the next round Arsenal on Britannia Stadium. Of course the team is priced high @ 4.60 to win this match, but the draw looks pretty tempting @ 3.80. The odds for placing in top 4 or winning the league are out of the question, but those for the team to be relegated in Championship are quite low @ 5.00 with bet365.

West Bromwich are also not big spenders but the team usually manages to find their way in the upper half of the table. Having won their first match the team sits comfortable with 3 points on the 8th spot with odds to be relegated @ 8.00 with bet365. So far W.B.A has spent €33.5 million on transfers: G. Barry from Everton for €1.1 million, Zhang Yuning from Vitesse for € 7.2 million, J. Rodriguez from Southampton for € 13.7 million and J. Livermore from Hull City for € 11.5 million.

Southampton is another team who usually finishes in the middle or above the middle of the table (8th last season). The Saints usually have a quality team, though on the budget. So far € 40 million are spent on transfers: M. Lemina for € 17 million from Juventus, J. Bednarek from Lech for € 6 million and M. Gabbiadini from Napoli also for € 17 million.

Southampton drew their first match against Swansea which puts them on the 11th spot, but with high odds of being relegated @ 17.00

This concludes our Part 2 and we are moving on to Part 3. Please click here to visit Part 3.

Friday, August 18, 2017

English Premier League Season 2017/18 Review Part 1

The English Premier League is perhaps one of the most watched leagues in the entire world. Why? Because that's where all of the money is nowdays, and money buys you talented players, which leads to high quality football and a lot of viewers interest. Looking at this season, the sum on transfers looks bigger than ever, and there's still time until the window closes.

Arsenal has a few undisclosed transfers, but the one listed publicly is A.Lacazette who came from Lyon for €53 million. Considering that Wenger usually does not spend a lot of money on transfers or much money on one single transfer, this is quite big of a purchase.

Arsenal won their first match this season, and is currently 5th in the table with odds to finish in top 4 @ 1.83 with bet365.

Chelsea's list looks a lot bigger with 3 disclosed transfers: Álvaro Morata from Real Madrid for € 65 million, T. Bakayoko from Monaco for € 40 million and A. Rüdiger from Roma for € 35 million. A €140 million spent so far, and Chelsea shows that they are serious about another title this season and better performance in Champions League.

Chelsea surprisingly lost their first match this season, at home against Burnley and is currently taking the 14th spot in the table with odds to place in top 4 @ 1.66 with bet365.

Liverpool meanwhile have not set their eye on big players, spending only a total of € 51 million: Mohamed Salah for € 42 million from Roma and A. Robertson from Hull City for € 9 million. Liverpool drew their first match, a surprising 3:3 against Watford, taking the 9th spot in the league with odds to place in top 4 @ 2.10.

Manchester City as usual tops the charts in terms of money spent, but so far it hasn't really paid off despite the 2 tittles and occasional cup trophies. A total of €272.5 million spent so far: B. Mendy from Monaco for € 57.5 million, Danilo from Real Madrid for € 30.0 million, Douglas Luiz from Vasco for € 12 million, K. Walker from Tottenham for € 51 million, Bernardo Silva from Monaco for € 50 million,Ederson Moraes from Benfica for € 40 million, Gabriel Jesus from Palmeiras for € 32 million.

It's pretty logical for the list to grow even more, knowing City and their habit of overspending for transfers. The team managed to win their first match and is currently 3rd in the table with odds to place in top 4 @ 1.11, a favorite to win this season's title with odds @ 2.25

City's rivals Manchester United have also spend quite a lot of money so far, reaching the number: € 164.4 million: N. Matić from Chelsea for € 44.7 million, R. Lukaku from Everton for € 84.7 million,V. Lindelöf from Benfica for € 35 million. Despite the rough seasons after the departure of Sir Alex Ferguson, Mourinho has found the right strategy and the team managed to win the Europa League and get a chance to play in Champions League next season.

Despite the loss to Real Madrid for the Uefa Supercup, played a few weeks ago, the team has a high morale and managed to win their first match in the Premier League, topping the table and having odds to place in top 4 this season @ 1.20 and winning the league @ 3.75.

Tottenham have a few transfers listed but so far nothing has been disclosed as sum, so there's nothing to look at. The team won their first match and is placed 4th in the table so far, with odds to place in top 4 @ 1.66 and win the league @ 9.00 by bet365.

The 9.00 seems a bit surprising as the Spurs came close two seasons ago, when they finished 2nd after Leicester City.

This concludes the Part 1 of the review. The Top 4 teams and those that are usually around those spots have been included here.

Part 2 and 3 and so on will include the rest, starting from the ones who usually place in the middle until the ones who usually struggle to survive or barely make the cut, as well as the newcomers. Visit Part 2 by clicking here