The football seasons across all Europe have started and with them the most prestigious and exciting tournament starts as well: Champions League Season 2017/18. The draw took place on August 24th 2017, and the groups are set. For those who have missed it this is what the groups looks like:
Group A: Basel, Benfica, CSKA Moscow, Manchester United
Group B: PSG, Bayern Munich, Anderlecht, Celtic
Group C: Atletico Madrid, Chelsea, Qarabag, Roma
Group D: Sporting CP, Barcelona, Juventus, Olympiacos
Group E: Sevilla, Maribor, Spartak Moscow, Liverpool
Group F: Napolli, Feyenoord, Manchester City, Shakhtar Donetsk
Group G: Besiktas, Leipzig, Monaco, Porto
Group H: Borussia Dortmund, Real Madrid, APOEL, Tottenham
On Matchday 1, we have some interesting games forming. Barcelona against Juventus is one of the most anticipated, as last season both teams met in the knockout stage, where Juventus after a loss with 1:3, managed to win at home with 3:0 and knockout the Spanish grand. The odds for this game are 1.75 for Barcelona to win and 4.33 for Juventus to get the 3 points here. A draw is @ 3.75, though Barcelona would want to start the tournament strong, especially at home.
Another match that grabs the attention is Manchester United v Basel. After a somewhat long absence from the tournament, United managed to win Europa League last season and given the new rule that the winner plays in Champions League, they managed to qualify. Both teams have met each other 4 times where each managed to take a victory and there are 2 draws in between those. United however has started the Premier League, very strong winning 3 of the first 3 games, and are priced as a total favorite in this match with odds @ 1.16.
Basel on the other hand have odds @ 15.00, while the draw is @ 7.00 and there's a lot of value in these odds! Why? Because of the previous records, excluding any predetermination and favor of the bigger team, the stats just don't scream Basel is a 100% outsider. Further more, in the last 3 games, the team has managed to win 1 and tie the other 2, which makes them unbeaten against United for over 14 years. Yes United are in a great shape, yes United are the bigger team, yes United are very likely to win and will dominate, BUT the odds do not represent the true probabilities AT ALL.
I'd probably back X2 (Draw + Away Victory), just to see what happens with this match. Not to mention it's a first game and the team will be still adjusting.
Those were the games for September 12th 2017, moving on to September 13th's games, where I'm pleased to see Liverpool returning on the stage of Champions League, after a lot of absence. The team would be facing Sevilla, a team they faced in the Europa League final in 2016, lost with 1:3. Given this fact, the odds for Sevilla to win are @ 5.00, while Liverpool's @ 1.66. Once again we see an overestimation and the odds again represent a lot of favoring the big English team, rater than true probability of what can/would happen.
Tottenham against Borussia Dortmund would be another match, that the fans would be anticipating. Tottenham are the favorite here with odds to win @ 2.30, the draw is @ 3.30 and the away victory has been undercut to 3.10. The statistics show that Dortmund has won the last 2 games, scoring 5 goals and conceding just 1, which is the reason why the odds have been purposely lowered.
Overall a few high profile games that if I'd be playing, would be live, as I'd like to see how the first 10-15 minutes of the match goes. This concludes our Matchday 1 overview.
